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Amaxabiso egolide abhala ukonyuka kwawo okunamandla ka-Oktobha malunga nesiqingatha senkulungwane

Ixabiso legolide lalino-Okthobha ongcono kakhulu malunga nesiqingatha senkulungwane, lithintela ukuxhathisa ngokunyuka kwezivuno zikaNondyebo kunye nedola yaseMelika eyomeleleyo. Intsimbi etyheli idibanise i-7.3% engakholelekiyo kwinyanga ephelileyo ukuvala kwi-1,983 yeedola nge-ounce, eyona inamandla ngo-Oktobha ukususela ngo-1978, xa yatsiba i-11.7%.

Igolide, i-asethi engenanzala, iye yagqwetheka ngokwembali xa izivuno zebhondi zazisiya phezulu. Kubekho umkhethe kulo nyaka, nangona kunjalo, kwinani lemingcipheko ebalulekileyo yezoqoqosho kunye ne-geopolitical, kubandakanywa ityala lesizwe elirekhodiweyo, ukunyuka kwamakhadi okuthenga ngetyala, i-jitters eqhubekayo yokudodobala koqoqosho (ngaphandle kokunyanzelisa kukaJerome Powell ukuba ukudodobala koqoqosho akusekho kwi-Federal Reserve's. uqikelelo) kunye neemfazwe ezimbini.

BHALISA I-DIGEST YEZINDLU EZIBALULEKILEYO

Ukwenza ipotfoliyo yakho yegolide kwimarike engaqinisekanga

Ukuba uyakholelwa ukuba ezi meko ziya kuqhubeka zikhuthaza imfuno yotyalo-mali lwegolide, ngoku ingalixesha elilungileyo lokucinga ngokutyhileka (okanye ukongeza ekutyhilekeni kwakho) ngokulindela amaxabiso anokuba phezulu.

Isilumkiso: Isinyithi sibukeka sigqithise ngoku ngokusekwe kwisalathiso samandla esalamane seentsuku ezili-14 (RSI), ngoko sinokubona ukuthatha inzuzo kwixesha elifutshane. Ndiyakholelwa ukuba inkxaso eyomeleleyo iyasekwa, kwaye ukuba izitokhwe ziyancipha kwimpompo yeveki ephelileyo, ingaba yinto eyaneleyo ye-rally yegolide. Gcina ukhumbule ukuba, kwixesha le-30 leminyaka, uNovemba ube yinyanga engcono kakhulu ye-stocks, kunye ne-S & P 500 yokwandisa umyinge we-1.96%, ngokusekelwe kwidatha ye-Bloomberg.

Ndincoma i-weighting yegolide engekho ngaphezu kwe-10%, yahlulwe ngokulinganayo phakathi kwe-bullion yomzimba (imivalo, iingqekembe zemali kunye nobucwebe) kunye nezitokhwe eziphezulu zemigodi yegolide, iingxowa-mali ezifanayo kunye nee-ETF. Khumbula ukuhlengahlengisa ubuncinane kanye ngonyaka, ukuba akukho rhoqo.

Kutheni iibhanki ezingundoqo zibheja ezinkulu kwigolide

Ukuba uselucingweni, jonga ukuba icandelo elisemthethweni beliphezu kwantoni na. Iibhanki ezisembindini zithenge iitoni zegolide ezidityanisiweyo ezingama-337 kwikota yesithathu, ziphawula ikota yesibini ngobukhulu kwirekhodi, ngokwengxelo yamva nje yeBhunga leGolide leHlabathi (i-WGC). Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iibhanki zongeze iitoni ezingama-800 ezimangalisayo, nto leyo engaphezulu nge-14% kunezo zongezeleleyo kwiinyanga ezisithoba kunyaka ophelileyo.

Iibhanki ezingoovimba ziQhubeke ngokuThenga ngesantya esiqhawukayo

Uluhlu lwabathengi abakhulu ngexesha lekota yesithathu lwalulawulwa ziimarike ezikhulayo njengoko amazwe eqhubeka nokwahlukana kude nedola yaseMelika. Indawo ephezulu yayiyiChina, eyongeze iitoni zegolide ezingama-78, ilandelwa yiPoland (ngaphezu kweetoni ezingama-56) kunye neTurkey (iitoni ezingama-39).

Ndihlala ndicebisa abatyali-mali ukuba banikele ingqalelo kwiibhanki eziphambilidokunokuba yintoni nayithi,kodwa ngamanye amaxesha bathetha kwaye bafanele ukumamela.

Ngokomzekelo, kwinkomfa yoonondaba kwinyanga ephelileyo, umongameli weNational Bank of Poland (NBP) uAdam Glapiński wathi ilizwe laseMpuma Yurophu laliza kuqhubeka lithenga igolide, nto leyo “eyenza iPoland ibe lilizwe elithembeke ngakumbi.” Injongo kukuba igolide ibe yi-20% yoovimba bebonke basePoland. Ukususela ngoSeptemba, igolide yabalelwa kwi-11.2% yokubamba kwayo, ngokweenkcukacha zeWGC.

Ukuleqa igolide eJapan

Jonga kwakhona eJapan. Ilizwe belikade lingazange libe ngumrhwebi omkhulu wegolide kumazwe angaphandle, kodwa abatyali-zimali baseJapan kunye namakhaya ngokubanzi mva nje bathe babiza ixabiso lentsimbi etyheli ukuya kwindawo entsha ephezulu ye-¥300,000. Lowo ngumahluko omkhulu ukusuka kwi-avareji yexabiso leminyaka engama-30 elingaphantsi nje kwe-¥100,000.

Igolide Ixabiso ngeYen yaseJapan kwiRekhodi ePhezulu

Kwixesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelifutshane, ukungxama kwegolide yaseJapan kuqaliswe ikakhulu sisilayidi sembali yeyen ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika, oko kubangele abatyali-mali ukuba bafune uthango ngokuchasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Kwiinzame zokunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso abathengi, iNkulumbuso yaseJapan uFumio Kishida uye wazisa i-¥17 yetriliyoni (i-113 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) yokuvuselela iphakheji ethi, phakathi kwezinye izinto, yenza ukucutha okwethutyana kwingeniso kunye nerhafu yendawo yokuhlala, uncedo kumakhaya anengeniso ephantsi kunye nepetroli. kunye nezibonelelo eziluncedo.

Kodwa njengoko uninzi lwenu lusazi, ushicilelo-mali ngoorhulumente behlabathi, ngakumbi ngexesha lo bhubhani, ubukhulu becala kutyholwa ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthe kwasika kakhulu kwiipokotho zabathengi kwihlabathi liphela. Isicwangciso senkcitho ye-113 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngeli xesha siya kusebenza njengamafutha kumlilo webhon.

Amakhaya aseJapan abonakala eyiqonda le nto, njengoko ukuvunywa komsebenzi kaKishida njengenkulumbuso kuye kwehle kwaya kutsho kuma-33%, ngokokuvota kukaNikkei kunye neTokyo TV. Xa bebuzwa malunga nokuthotywa kwerhafu okunokwenzeka, i-65% yabathathi-nxaxheba bathi bayimpendulo engafanelekanga kwixabiso eliphezulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Isicwangciso esingcono, ndiyakholwa, sisemigodini yegolide negolide. Njengoko i-WGC ibonise amaxesha amaninzi, igolide iqhube kakuhle ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu. Ngokomlando, xa izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liye ladlula i-3%-lapho sikhoyo namhlanje-ixabiso eliqhelekileyo legolide lenyuka nge-14%.

Kwixesha leenyanga ezili-12 ukususela ngoLwesihlanu, igolide ngokweedola iphezulu kwi-22%, ebetha i-S & P 500 (i-19% ngexesha elifanayo) kwaye ingaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Eyokuqala : (NguFrank Holmes, i-CEO ye-US Global Investors)


Ixesha lokuposa: Nov-09-2023